Institutional Factsheet · Quantalyze

Redline BTC Trend

directional · trend following, cta · BTC · Binance · leverage 1.5x

CTA-style trend-following on BTC using 20/50/200-day moving average crossovers. Fully systematic, no discretionary overrides.

Computed · old

May 27, 2026(89d)

AUM

$22M/ $100M

Cum. Return

-50.7%

CAGR

-15.3%

Sharpe

-0.23

Sortino

-0.31

Calmar

-0.25

Max DD

-61.9%

Ann. Vol

38.3%

α vs BTC

-9.8%

IR vs BTC

-0.69

Display
Compare strategies
Compare to
Timeline2022-01-102026-04-08
20222023202420252026

Performance

Hide
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Cumulative Returns

vs BTC-USD

Export
-50.0%-30.0%+0.0%+50.0%+100.0%+200.0%+400.0%20222023202420252026
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Cumulative Returns vs Benchmark

strategy ÷ comparator, rebased to 1.0

Export
-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%+0.0%20222023202420252026
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Cumulative Returns — Volatility Matched

comparator returns scaled so its ann vol equals the strategy's

Export
-50.0%-30.0%+0.0%+50.0%+100.0%+200.0%+400.0%20222023202420252026
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Daily Returns

vs BTC-USD

Export
-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%-0.0%+5.0%+10.0%+15.0%20222023202420252026
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Rolling Volatility (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

Export
N<126 — noisy+0.0%+10.0%+20.0%+30.0%+40.0%+50.0%+60.0%20222023202420252026avg 38.1%
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Rolling Sharpe (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

Export
N<126 — noisy-2.00+0.00+2.00+4.0020222023202420252026avg -0.16
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Rolling Sortino (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

Export
N<126 — noisy-4.00-2.00+0.00+2.00+4.00+6.00+8.0020222023202420252026avg -0.13
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Rolling β (90d) vs Comparator

rolling regression β of strategy on comparator · first 90d are warmup

Export
N<90 — noisy-0.20+0.00+0.20+0.40+0.60+0.8020222023202420252026
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Worst 10 Drawdown Periods

strategy equity · shaded bands mark the deepest 10 drawdowns

Export
-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%+0.0%20222023202420252026#1 -61.9%#2 -18.0%#3 -4.5%#4 -4.0%#5 -3.5%
Arrow keys pan the timeline. Plus and minus zoom around the center. Home or zero resets the view. Mouse wheel zooms toward the cursor. Drag inside the plot to pan; drag the left axis to scale Y; drag the bottom axis to scale X.

Underwater Chart for Accumulated Capital

drawdown from running peak

Export
-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%-0.0%20222023202420252026

Distribution

Hide

Distribution of Daily Returns

1,108 samples in visible window · overlay: BTC-USD · 4 strategy · 21 BTC outside range

Redline BTC TrendBTC-USDWheel to zoom · double-click to reset
-7.0%0%+7.0%

Daily-Return Quantile Box

5-number summary · whiskers at min/max · box P25–P75 · median accent line

P5 -4.0%P95 +3.7%-11.2%0%+7.5%

P5

-4.0%

P25

-1.7%

Median

+0.0%

P75

+1.6%

P95

+3.7%

End-of-Year Returns vs BTC

compounded annual returns · scale ±122% · strategy in accent, BTC in muted

Redline BTC TrendBTC-USD2022-37.1%+0.0%2023+0.8%+48.0%2024+29.2%+122.4%2025-38.4%-6.3%2026-2.2%-18.9%

Cross-Asset Correlation

Pearson ρ on aligned daily returns · ρ near 0 implies diversification benefit

-1.0-0.50.00.51.0BTC+0.04ETH+0.04S&P 500+0.01Gold+0.00US 10Y (IEF)-0.02

ρ measured against the strategy's observation dates with each benchmark forward-filled to the same calendar.

Returns Correlations

Pearson ρ on aligned daily returns · diagonal = 1.00 · pairwise off-diagonal

Redline BTC…BTCETHSPXGoldIEFRedline BTC…1.000.040.040.010.00-0.02BTC0.041.000.820.340.10-0.04ETH0.040.821.000.400.10-0.00SPX0.010.340.401.000.120.05Gold0.000.100.100.121.000.20IEF-0.02-0.04-0.000.050.201.00

Heatmaps

Hide

Stress Windows

Hide

Stress Windows

strategy vs BTC compounded return + max drawdown during named market events · evaluating 6 of 10 catalogued events; 4 outside observation period

EventWindowDaysStrategyStrat DDBTCBTC DD
SVB / banking
regional-bank run
2023-03-082023-03-178d-0.9%-4.9%+0.0%0.0%
Aug 2024 unwind
JPY carry-trade unwind
2024-08-022024-08-096d-2.9%-3.3%-6.9%-17.3%
Apr 2025 tariffs
tariff escalation shock
2025-04-022025-04-096d+9.4%-0.7%-3.0%-10.4%
TerraLuna collapsepartial
UST depeg → cascade
2022-05-092022-05-2010d/13-2.9%-10.1%+0.0%0.0%
3AC / Celsiuspartial
crypto credit unwind
2022-06-082022-06-3017d/23-3.3%-11.2%+0.0%0.0%
FTX failurepartial
SBF / Alameda collapse
2022-11-072022-11-2212d/17-3.0%-11.9%+0.0%0.0%

Streaks

Hide

Consecutive-Day Streak Distribution

292 winning streaks · 292 losing streaks · max win streak 9d · max loss streak 10d

Wins

050100150200Length 1: 155 streaksLength 2: 67 streaksLength 3: 36 streaksLength 4: 21 streaksLength 5: 8 streaksLength 6: 2 streaksLength 7: 1 streakLength 8: 1 streakLength 9: 1 streak13579111314+

Losses

050100150200Length 1: 156 streaksLength 2: 69 streaksLength 3: 39 streaksLength 4: 15 streaksLength 5: 6 streaksLength 6: 3 streaksLength 7: 2 streaksLength 8: 1 streakLength 10: 1 streak13579111314+