Institutional Factsheet · Quantalyze

Polaris Basis Capture

arbitrage · basis trade, calendar spread · BTC · ETH · deribit, OKX · leverage 2x

Cash-and-carry basis trade across BTC/ETH quarterlies vs spot on Deribit + OKX. Rolls the front-month every expiry.

Computed · old

May 27, 2026(89d)

AUM

$32M/ $60M

Cum. Return

+31.6%

CAGR

+6.7%

Sharpe

1.53

Sortino

2.25

Calmar

1.46

Max DD

-4.6%

Ann. Vol

4.2%

α vs BTC

+6.4%

IR vs BTC

-0.56

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Timeline2022-01-172026-04-08
20222023202420252026

Performance

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Cumulative Returns

vs BTC-USD

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+0.0%+50.0%+100.0%+200.0%+400.0%20222023202420252026
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Cumulative Returns vs Benchmark

strategy ÷ comparator, rebased to 1.0

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-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%+0.0%+20.0%20222023202420252026
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Cumulative Returns — Volatility Matched

comparator returns scaled so its ann vol equals the strategy's

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+0.0%+10.0%+20.0%+30.0%20222023202420252026
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Daily Returns

vs BTC-USD

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-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%-0.0%+5.0%+10.0%+15.0%20222023202420252026
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Rolling Volatility (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

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N<126 — noisy+0.0%+10.0%+20.0%+30.0%+40.0%+50.0%+60.0%20222023202420252026avg 4.1%
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Rolling Sharpe (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

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N<126 — noisy-2.00+0.00+2.00+4.0020222023202420252026avg 1.87
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Rolling Sortino (6mo)

vs BTC-USD

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N<126 — noisy-4.00-2.00+0.00+2.00+4.00+6.00+8.0020222023202420252026avg 3.01
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Rolling β (90d) vs Comparator

rolling regression β of strategy on comparator · first 90d are warmup

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N<90 — noisy-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02+0.00+0.02+0.0420222023202420252026
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Worst 10 Drawdown Periods

strategy equity · shaded bands mark the deepest 10 drawdowns

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+0.0%+10.0%+20.0%+30.0%20222023202420252026#1 -4.6%#2 -2.2%#3 -2.2%#4 -2.0%#5 -1.9%#6 -1.6%#7 -1.6%#8 -1.5%#9 -1.4%#10 -1.3%
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Underwater Chart for Accumulated Capital

drawdown from running peak

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-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%+0.0%20222023202420252026

Distribution

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Distribution of Daily Returns

1,103 samples in visible window · overlay: BTC-USD · 6 strategy · 563 BTC outside range

Polaris Basis CaptureBTC-USDWheel to zoom · double-click to reset
-0.72%0%+0.72%

Daily-Return Quantile Box

5-number summary · whiskers at min/max · box P25–P75 · median accent line

P5 -0.4%P95 +0.4%-1.7%0%+0.8%

P5

-0.4%

P25

-0.1%

Median

+0.0%

P75

+0.2%

P95

+0.4%

End-of-Year Returns vs BTC

compounded annual returns · scale ±122% · strategy in accent, BTC in muted

Polaris Basis CaptureBTC-USD2022-1.4%+0.0%2023+6.5%+48.0%2024+11.4%+122.4%2025+14.6%-6.3%2026-1.9%-18.9%

Cross-Asset Correlation

Pearson ρ on aligned daily returns · ρ near 0 implies diversification benefit

-1.0-0.50.00.51.0BTC-0.01ETH+0.02S&P 500+0.02Gold-0.05US 10Y (IEF)-0.05

ρ measured against the strategy's observation dates with each benchmark forward-filled to the same calendar.

Returns Correlations

Pearson ρ on aligned daily returns · diagonal = 1.00 · pairwise off-diagonal

Polaris Bas…BTCETHSPXGoldIEFPolaris Bas…1.00-0.010.020.02-0.05-0.05BTC-0.011.000.820.340.10-0.04ETH0.020.821.000.400.10-0.00SPX0.020.340.401.000.120.05Gold-0.050.100.100.121.000.20IEF-0.05-0.04-0.000.050.201.00

Heatmaps

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Stress Windows

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Stress Windows

strategy vs BTC compounded return + max drawdown during named market events · evaluating 6 of 10 catalogued events; 4 outside observation period

EventWindowDaysStrategyStrat DDBTCBTC DD
SVB / banking
regional-bank run
2023-03-082023-03-178d+1.0%-0.2%+0.0%0.0%
Aug 2024 unwind
JPY carry-trade unwind
2024-08-022024-08-096d+0.0%-0.5%-6.9%-17.3%
Apr 2025 tariffs
tariff escalation shock
2025-04-022025-04-096d-0.1%-0.6%-3.0%-10.4%
TerraLuna collapsepartial
UST depeg → cascade
2022-05-092022-05-2010d/13+0.0%-0.5%+0.0%0.0%
3AC / Celsiuspartial
crypto credit unwind
2022-06-082022-06-3017d/23-0.3%-0.5%+0.0%0.0%
FTX failurepartial
SBF / Alameda collapse
2022-11-072022-11-2212d/17-0.8%-1.9%+0.0%0.0%

Streaks

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Consecutive-Day Streak Distribution

283 winning streaks · 282 losing streaks · max win streak 9d · max loss streak 7d

Wins

050100150Length 1: 132 streaksLength 2: 60 streaksLength 3: 42 streaksLength 4: 28 streaksLength 5: 12 streaksLength 6: 3 streaksLength 7: 3 streaksLength 8: 1 streakLength 9: 2 streaks13579111314+

Losses

050100150200Length 1: 163 streaksLength 2: 69 streaksLength 3: 28 streaksLength 4: 15 streaksLength 5: 1 streakLength 6: 4 streaksLength 7: 2 streaks13579111314+